Caustic soda has eased from April highs as China supply normalized. TiO2 has risen 3–4% as predicted — feedstock costs transmitted through. Solvents are up on sustained crude oil pressure at $80–86/bbl. Q4 contract season opens now: procurement teams that lock annual rates in August avoid the September pre-holiday pricing premium. Raw Source tracks 10 key industrial chemicals for bulk procurement teams; here is where every tracked chemical stands this month.
Raw Source publishes this index monthly to give procurement teams current, vendor-neutral benchmarks for negotiating with suppliers and timing purchases. No paywalls. No analyst fees. Transparent, bulk-focused pricing data you can reference in every supplier conversation. For context on the crude oil dynamics driving solvent costs, see our analysis of the 2026 petrochemical price shock.
Price Movement Summary: 10 Key Industrial Chemicals — August 2026
Chemical | Current Range (FOB/CFR) | Month-on-Month | YTD Change | Trend |
Caustic Soda (98% flakes, FOB Mundra) | $365–400/MT | +2% | +2% | Stable (supply normalized) |
TiO2 (Rutile 94%, CFR Asia) | $2,180–2,320/MT | +1% | +7% | Up (feedstock transmitted) |
Acetone (FOB India/China) | $650–710/MT | +3% | +12% | Up (crude $80–86/bbl) |
Toluene (FOB Singapore) | $600–670/MT | +2% | +8% | Up (naphtha pressure) |
Soda Ash (Dense, FOB China) | $295–345/MT | +4% | +3% | Up (Q3 glass demand) |
Citric Acid (Anhydrous, FOB China) | $1,050–1,180/MT | -1% | -1% | Stable (China supply ramp) |
Calcium Carbonate (GCC, FOB India) | $65–85/MT | Flat | Flat | Stable |
Oleochemical Fatty Acids (C16/C18, FOB Malaysia) | $880–980/MT | +2% | +10% | Up (palm oil firm) |
Specialty Amines (DEA, FOB Germany/China) | $1,850–2,150/MT | +2% | +11% | Up |
Surfactants (LABSA, FOB India/Middle East) | $1,420–1,640/MT | +1% | +7% | Up |
Key takeaway: Seven of ten chemicals tracked are at or above April levels. The China normalization that eased caustic soda has not offset broad-based petrochemical pressure. Q4 contract locking is the priority action this month.
Caustic Soda: Stable After April Tightness Resolved
Caustic soda is trading at $365–400/MT FOB Mundra (98% minimum purity), down from the $380–420/MT April peak as China’s post-inspection production ramp normalized global supply. This is the “soft window” the April forecast identified: procurement teams with deferred purchasing now have their entry point.
What Is Driving Current Pricing
China production recovered as compliance deadlines passed in May–June. Shandong and Jiangsu capacity came back online broadly by mid-June, easing the artificial tightness that drove April’s 8% spike. India producers held steady output throughout; their pricing is now at the competitive floor for the current cycle.
A new pressure is building from the demand side: alumina refining in Australia and Southeast Asia is ramping Q4 production. Water treatment chemicals demand in South and Southeast Asia is at seasonal peak. These demand tailwinds will offset supply normalization by September, limiting further price declines.
Pricing by Origin — August 2026
India (Mundra): $365–400/MT FOB, 98% grade. Membrane-grade (99%+) commands $18–22/MT premium. Lead time: 6–8 weeks CIF. This remains the primary sourcing origin for most procurement teams.
China (Qingdao/Tianjin): $345–385/MT FOB, 98% grade. China’s pricing is competitive again post-normalization, but a new environmental inspection cycle is expected Q4. Sourcing teams comfortable with supply volatility can capture the $15–20/MT China discount; others should maintain India as primary.
Middle East (Saudi Arabia): $355–395/MT CFR, 98% grade. Competitive on delivered cost into South Asia and East Africa. Lead time: 6–7 weeks CIF. SABIC documentation and REACH compliance are strong if exporting to EU.
What to Do This Month
The current $365–400/MT India range is the softest pricing expected before year-end. Q4 alumina demand and China’s pre-holiday stocking (October National Day preparation starts in September) will add upward pressure. For teams renewing annual contracts in Q4, locking August pricing for 6–12 months is strategically correct.
Titanium Dioxide: Up 7% YTD as Forecast — Has It Peaked?
TiO2 is trading at $2,180–2,320/MT CFR (Rutile 94% grade) in August, confirming the April forecast that feedstock cost transmission would push prices 3–4% higher by mid-year. The question for procurement is whether this is the peak or whether Q4 paint season will drive a further leg up.
Pricing by Origin — August 2026
China: $2,080–2,150/MT CFR. Chinese producers are the marginal price setter. Capacity is stable; feedstock absorption is largely complete. Volume: high. Documentation for REACH-sensitive EU imports remains a 2–3 week overhead.
India (Tronox-affiliated): $2,220–2,320/MT CFR. Premium over China reflects REACH pre-compliance, consistent quality, and smaller production base. Lead time: 10–12 weeks CIF.
Europe (Chemours, Kronos, Venator): $2,300–2,450/MT CFR. Energy costs in Europe are ticking up heading into autumn, pushing European producer costs higher. For EU-market procurement, European source eliminates REACH overhead but carries the energy cost premium.
What Is Driving Current Pricing
Ilmenite feedstock (Australia, South Africa) has stabilized after the Q1–Q2 run-up. Paint and coatings demand is seasonal — North American and European construction season is at peak in August, supporting TiO2 demand. As European building activity slows in September–October, demand softens, which may create a brief pricing opportunity in October for procurement teams who can time purchases.
What to Do This Month
For Q4 production runs (October–December), lock TiO2 now at August rates. If your demand is seasonal and slows in Q4, October may offer a 1–2% spot discount as building season demand drops. High-volume buyers (50+ MT/month) should negotiate 12-month commitments at current rates: feedstock stabilization means prices are unlikely to decline meaningfully in 2027.
Industrial Solvents: Rising on Sustained Crude Oil Pressure
Solvents are uniformly higher in August as crude oil holds at $80–86/bbl — the upper end of the range from OPEC’s continued production cuts and geopolitical risk premium. Acetone is up 12% YTD; toluene and xylene are both up 8%. Procurement teams on monthly spot purchasing have absorbed the full price increase; quarterly contract buyers locked in April at better rates.
Solvent Price Detail — August 2026
Acetone: $650–710/MT FOB India/China. Up 3% month-on-month. Pharmaceutical and cosmetics demand steady. Naphtha costs are the dominant driver. MOQ: 5–10 MT for FOB pricing.
Toluene: $600–670/MT FOB Singapore. Up 2% on crude. Paints and coatings demand at seasonal peak. MOQ: 10 MT minimum.
Xylene (mixed isomers): $630–710/MT FOB Middle East/SE Asia. Up 3% as polyester demand holds firm through summer. Aromatic derivatives remain tight globally. MOQ: 5 MT minimum.
What to Do This Month
OPEC’s next production review is scheduled for September 2026. If OPEC signals cuts extension, crude holds above $80/bbl and solvents remain elevated. If production ramps, crude could ease to $72–76/bbl, pulling solvents down 3–5% in October. For procurement teams with Q4 solvent needs, two options: (1) lock quarterly contracts now at August rates and accept certainty; (2) defer 30–45 days and wait for OPEC clarity, accepting price risk. Teams with existing inventory buffer can take the second path; teams running lean cannot.
Specialty Chemicals: Soda Ash, Citric Acid, Calcium Carbonate Updates
Soda Ash (Dense, FOB China): $295–$345/MT, up 4% month-on-month as predicted. Q3 glass manufacturing demand is at seasonal peak — construction completions in North America and Middle East are driving glass consumption. Procurement teams who deferred purchasing in May–June as advised captured the seasonal trough. Expect stability through August with possible 2% easing in October as construction completions slow. Lead time: 6–8 weeks CIF.
Citric Acid (Anhydrous, FOB China): $1,050–$1,180/MT, down 1% month-on-month as Chinese production capacity ramped post-Q1. Supply is adequate; demand from food and beverage is stable but not exceptional. This is a good entry point for procurement teams building Q4 inventory. Lead time: 5–6 weeks CIF from China; quality from established Shandong and Jiangsu producers remains reliable.
Calcium Carbonate (GCC, FOB India): $65–$85/MT, flat for the fifth consecutive month. This is a stable commodity with no supply disruption risk. Bulk pricing (50+ MT) remains the primary negotiation lever; volume tier discounts of 3–5% are available above 30 MT/order. Lead time: 4–6 weeks CIF.
What Is Moving Chemical Markets in August 2026
Crude Oil Holding at $80–86/bbl
OPEC production cuts extended through Q3 are the primary driver holding crude above $80/bbl. Every $5 increment in crude affects petrochemical derivatives within 2–3 weeks. Solvents, oleochemicals, and surfactants will all respond if crude breaks above $88/bbl (supply shock scenario) or below $74/bbl (demand weakness scenario). Watch OPEC’s September review.
China Q4 Pre-Holiday Stocking Cycle Approaching
China’s National Day holiday runs October 1–7. Factories begin reducing shipments in mid-September, and some close for 1–2 weeks. Procurement teams sourcing from China should place August orders now to ensure pre-holiday dispatch. Orders placed after August 15 risk September congestion at Chinese ports as exporters rush pre-holiday clearance. This applies to caustic soda, citric acid, and solvents from Chinese origins.
Q4 Contract Season Opens
Most annual chemical contracts for 2027 begin negotiation in August–September. Procurement teams locking multi-month volume commitments in August secure current prices before Q4 demand and potential supply disruption risk reprices the market. Suppliers offer 4–8% discounts for 12-month volume commitments at 30+ MT/month; this discount narrows as Q4 approaches and supplier order books fill.
India Port Operations: Normal
JNPT and Mundra are operating at normal throughput with 1–2 day average container wait times. No congestion. This preserves the 6–8 week India lead time advantage. For procurement teams evaluating India versus China sourcing, India’s reliability advantage is intact and quantifiable: China lead time is running 9–12 weeks in August versus India’s 6–8 weeks.
Should You Buy Now or Wait in August 2026?
Lock Pricing Now If:
Your Q4 production schedule is confirmed and chemical demand is predictable. August pricing on caustic soda, TiO2, and solvents is at or near the best levels expected before year-end. Q4 annual contract negotiations are open: locking a 12-month commitment now secures current rates before September demand pushes suppliers’ order books to capacity.
You source from China. The pre-holiday stocking window closes in mid-August. Place orders now for pre-National Day dispatch. Post-August orders face congestion and 2–4 week lead time extension.
Your budget cycle resets in Q4. Procurement teams whose annual spend authorization runs January–December should use August–September to lock rates under the current authorization before year-end pricing pressure and budget transition create uncertainty.
Defer Purchasing If:
Your chemical is solvents and you have 45+ days of inventory. OPEC’s September meeting may ease crude. If crude moves below $74/bbl, solvents drop 3–5% in October — worth waiting if you have the inventory buffer.
Your chemical is citric acid. Supply is adequate and pricing is easing. No urgency; a further 1–2% decline into September is possible as Chinese new-crop feedstock arrives.
You source TiO2 for Q4 operations that slow in October–November. European building season slowdown may create a brief 1–2% spot opportunity in October for buyers who can accept the timing uncertainty.
Volume Tiers and Lead Time Reference
Volume Pricing Tiers
- 10–20 MT per order: Base FOB pricing, no volume discount
- 20–25 MT (standard container load): 2–3% volume discount typical
- 30+ MT/month commitment: 4–8% discount with written commitment
- 50+ MT/month annual contract: 8–15% potential savings through volume and duration
Lead Times by Origin — August 2026
India: 6–8 weeks CIF standard. Normal port operations at JNPT and Mundra.
China: 9–12 weeks CIF. Factor pre-holiday congestion for September–October deliveries.
Middle East: 6–7 weeks CIF. Gulf ports (Jebel Ali, Jubail) operating normally.
September 2026 Price Forecast
Caustic Soda: Slight Upward Pressure
Expected range: $370–410/MT FOB Mundra (up $5–10/MT from August). Pre-holiday China demand and seasonal water treatment peak will absorb the supply normalization benefit. Lock August pricing if your contract renews in September.
Confidence: Medium-high. Demand tailwinds from alumina and water treatment are structural, not seasonal.
TiO2: Stable to Slightly Softer
Expected range: $2,160–2,310/MT CFR (flat to -1% as North American building season tapers). October may offer a brief spot window for non-urgent purchases.
Confidence: Medium. Seasonal demand pattern is consistent; feedstock is stable.
Solvents: OPEC-Dependent
Crude above $82/bbl in September: Acetone $660–720/MT, toluene $610–680/MT (up 1–2%).
Crude below $75/bbl in September: Acetone $620–680/MT, toluene $580–640/MT (down 3–5%).
Confidence: Low. OPEC decision is the single variable. Monitor closely.
Soda Ash: Stable to Softer
Expected range: $285–340/MT FOB China as glass construction demand peaks and seasonally eases. Good entry point for October purchases if you can defer.
How Raw Source Supports Q4 Sourcing Planning
For procurement teams entering Q4 contract season, Raw Source provides current pricing benchmarks, origin-specific lead time commitments, and multi-chemical sourcing under a single purchase relationship. We publish this monthly index to give you the same pricing intelligence your suppliers use — so you negotiate from an informed position, not a reactive one.
Container-load orders for Q4 delivery need to be placed in August for India-origin chemicals and no later than August 15 for China-origin given pre-holiday logistics. Request a bulk quote to lock current August pricing before the Q4 contract window tightens.
Frequently Asked Questions
How often is this chemical price index updated?
Published monthly on the 20th of each month, covering the prior month’s pricing and the forward outlook. The September 2026 update publishes September 20, 2026. Data covers FOB and CFR pricing at major export ports for container-load quantities (20–25 MT minimum).
Why has caustic soda dropped since April 2026 while other chemicals are rising?
China’s environmental inspection cycle, which drove caustic soda up 8% in April, completed by May–June 2026 and capacity normalized. Caustic soda pricing is uniquely sensitive to China’s chlor-alkali production cycles. Other chemicals tracked here — solvents, TiO2, oleochemicals — are driven by crude oil and feedstock costs, which have risen through 2026 independent of Chinese regulatory cycles.
Should I lock annual contracts in August or wait for Q4?
For most chemicals tracked here, August is the better entry point. Caustic soda is at the seasonal low before Q4 demand; TiO2 feedstock is stable now but structural pressure continues; solvent pricing is crude-dependent and OPEC uncertainty limits the case for waiting. Procurement teams with confirmed Q4 demand should commit now. Teams with flexible demand and inventory buffer can wait 30–45 days for OPEC clarity on solvents specifically.
What does the China pre-holiday stocking cycle mean for procurement timelines?
China’s National Day holiday (October 1–7) creates a predictable disruption window annually. Exporters rush pre-holiday dispatch throughout September, creating port congestion and documentation delays. Orders placed after August 15 for China-origin chemicals risk September congestion and 2–4 week lead time extensions. For Q4 delivery, place China-origin orders in August.
How do I use this price index when negotiating with suppliers?
Reference the current month’s FOB/CFR range directly in your RFQ and contract discussions. If a supplier quotes above the market range, request written justification. Standard approach: “Your quote is $X/MT; the August 2026 market range for [chemical] from [origin] is $Y–Z/MT. Please confirm what premium you are applying and what it covers.” Suppliers quoting within range with strong documentation and lead time reliability are preferable to lowest-price quotes with quality or delivery risk.
Which chemicals are most urgent to source this month?
Priority for August purchasing: caustic soda (seasonal low, Q4 demand approaching), TiO2 (lock before Q4 paint season), and any China-origin chemical (pre-holiday logistics window closing). Lower urgency: citric acid (easing supply), calcium carbonate (no market pressure), and soda ash if your demand is not Q3-dependent.
How often is this index updated?
The index is updated monthly on the first business day of each month, reflecting price conditions as of month-end. This gives you timely benchmarking data for monthly procurement decisions.
Why has caustic soda dropped since April 2026 while other chemicals are rising?
China's environmental inspection cycle, which drove caustic soda up 8% in April, completed by May–June 2026 and capacity normalized. Caustic soda pricing is uniquely sensitive to China's chlor-alkali production cycles. Other chemicals tracked here — solvents, TiO2, oleochemicals — are driven by crude oil and feedstock costs, which have risen through 2026 independent of Chinese regulatory cycles.
Should I lock annual contracts in August or wait for Q4?
For most chemicals tracked here, August is the better entry point. Caustic soda is at the seasonal low before Q4 demand; TiO2 feedstock is stable now but structural pressure continues; solvent pricing is crude-dependent and OPEC uncertainty limits the case for waiting. Procurement teams with confirmed Q4 demand should commit now. Teams with flexible demand and inventory buffer can wait 30–45 days for OPEC clarity on solvents specifically.
What does the China pre-holiday stocking cycle mean for procurement timelines?
China's National Day holiday (October 1–7) creates a predictable disruption window annually. Exporters rush pre-holiday dispatch throughout September, creating port congestion and documentation delays. Orders placed after August 15 for China-origin chemicals risk September congestion and 2–4 week lead time extensions. For Q4 delivery, place China-origin orders in August.
How do I use this price index when negotiating with suppliers?
Reference the current month's FOB/CFR range directly in your RFQ and contract discussions. If a supplier quotes above the market range, request written justification. Standard approach: "Your quote is $X/MT; the August 2026 market range for [chemical] from [origin] is $Y–Z/MT. Please confirm what premium you are applying and what it covers." Suppliers quoting within range with strong documentation and lead time reliability are preferable to lowest-price quotes with quality or delivery risk.
Which chemicals are most urgent to source this month?
Priority for August purchasing: caustic soda (seasonal low, Q4 demand approaching), TiO2 (lock before Q4 paint season), and any China-origin chemical (pre-holiday logistics window closing). Lower urgency: citric acid (easing supply), calcium carbonate (no market pressure), and soda ash if your demand is not Q3-dependent.
